Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Each of these two lines is a rolling three-day average of daily growth rates for that particular metric.
    • For total cases, the trendlines will be a bit smoother and more consistent. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total cases can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the lines are a bit bumpier, in particular for states. While the trends aren’t as smooth, we want to watch for them to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Each of these two lines is a rolling three-day average of daily growth rates for that particular metric.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines will be a bit smoother and more consistent. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total deaths can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the lines are a bit bumpier, in particular for states. While the trends aren’t as smooth, we want to watch for them to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)

##                        state casesPerMillion
##  1:                 New York        12,724.0
##  2:               New Jersey         9,998.0
##  3:            Massachusetts         5,751.0
##  4:              Connecticut         5,557.0
##  5:                Louisiana         5,275.0
##  6:             Rhode Island         4,804.0
##  7:     District of Columbia         4,147.0
##  8:                 Michigan         3,196.0
##  9:                 Delaware         2,818.0
## 10:             Pennsylvania         2,656.0
## 11:                 Illinois         2,486.0
## 12:                 Maryland         2,263.0
## 13:             South Dakota         1,904.0
## 14:                 Colorado         1,754.0
## 15:                  Georgia         1,737.0
## 16:                  Indiana         1,735.0
## 17:               Washington         1,600.0
## 18:              Mississippi         1,516.0
## 19:                  Vermont         1,307.0
## 20:                  Florida         1,259.0
## 21:                   Nevada         1,243.0
## 22:                     Ohio         1,105.0
## 23:            New Hampshire         1,064.0
## 24:                 Virginia         1,053.0
## 25:                  Alabama         1,035.0
## 26:                Tennessee         1,027.0
## 27:                     Iowa         1,006.0
## 28:                     Utah         1,002.0
## 29:                 Missouri           946.0
## 30:               New Mexico           939.0
## 31:                    Idaho           916.0
## 32:           South Carolina           862.0
## 33:               California           857.0
## 34:                 Nebraska           851.0
## 35:             North Dakota           822.0
## 36:                Wisconsin           772.0
## 37:                   Kansas           697.0
## 38:                  Arizona           695.0
## 39:                    Texas           691.0
## 40:                 Kentucky           682.0
## 41:                 Oklahoma           677.0
## 42:                 Arkansas           653.0
## 43:                    Maine           650.0
## 44:           North Carolina           644.0
## 45:                  Wyoming           547.0
## 46:            West Virginia           506.0
## 47:                   Oregon           463.0
## 48:                Minnesota           437.0
## 49:                   Alaska           436.0
## 50:                   Hawaii           408.0
## 51:                  Montana           405.0
## 52:              Puerto Rico           392.0
## 53:           American Samoa            <NA>
## 54:                     Guam            <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands            <NA>
## 56:           Virgin Islands            <NA>
##                        state casesPerMillion

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)

##                        state casesNewPerMillion
##  1:               New Jersey                388
##  2:                 New York                306
##  3:             Rhode Island                287
##  4:              Connecticut                281
##  5:            Massachusetts                253
##  6:     District of Columbia                213
##  7:                 Delaware                144
##  8:                 Maryland                116
##  9:                     Ohio                108
## 10:                 Illinois                103
## 11:             South Dakota                103
## 12:             Pennsylvania                101
## 13:                Louisiana                100
## 14:                     Iowa                 89
## 15:             North Dakota                 82
## 16:              Mississippi                 80
## 17:                  Indiana                 75
## 18:                 Nebraska                 74
## 19:                 Michigan                 65
## 20:                 Colorado                 61
## 21:                 Virginia                 58
## 22:                  Georgia                 56
## 23:               New Mexico                 41
## 24:                     Utah                 41
## 25:                 Kentucky                 39
## 26:            New Hampshire                 39
## 27:               California                 37
## 28:                  Florida                 35
## 29:                  Alabama                 34
## 30:                   Kansas                 34
## 31:                   Nevada                 33
## 32:               Washington                 32
## 33:                 Arkansas                 30
## 34:                 Missouri                 28
## 35:           North Carolina                 28
## 36:                Tennessee                 28
## 37:                  Arizona                 25
## 38:                Wisconsin                 25
## 39:            West Virginia                 24
## 40:                Minnesota                 23
## 41:           South Carolina                 22
## 42:                    Texas                 22
## 43:              Puerto Rico                 19
## 44:                  Vermont                 19
## 45:                 Oklahoma                 18
## 46:                    Idaho                 13
## 47:                   Oregon                 13
## 48:                    Maine                 11
## 49:                   Hawaii                  7
## 50:                  Wyoming                  6
## 51:                   Alaska                  5
## 52:                  Montana                  3
## 53:           American Samoa               <NA>
## 54:                     Guam               <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands               <NA>
## 56:           Virgin Islands               <NA>
##                        state casesNewPerMillion

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)

##                        state deathsPerMillion
##  1:                 New York              737
##  2:               New Jersey              492
##  3:              Connecticut              373
##  4:                Louisiana              285
##  5:            Massachusetts              262
##  6:                 Michigan              246
##  7:     District of Columbia              148
##  8:             Rhode Island              146
##  9:                 Illinois              107
## 10:             Pennsylvania              106
## 11:               Washington               86
## 12:                 Maryland               85
## 13:                  Indiana               84
## 14:                 Colorado               77
## 15:                 Delaware               73
## 16:                  Georgia               72
## 17:                  Vermont               60
## 18:              Mississippi               56
## 19:                   Nevada               52
## 20:                     Ohio               43
## 21:                Wisconsin               39
## 22:                  Florida               38
## 23:                 Oklahoma               36
## 24:                 Virginia               35
## 25:                   Kansas               34
## 26:                 Kentucky               34
## 27:                  Alabama               33
## 28:                 Missouri               32
## 29:               California               30
## 30:            New Hampshire               30
## 31:               New Mexico               27
## 32:                  Arizona               26
## 33:                    Idaho               26
## 34:                    Maine               26
## 35:                     Iowa               25
## 36:                Minnesota               25
## 37:           South Carolina               24
## 38:                Tennessee               23
## 39:                    Texas               18
## 40:                 Nebraska               17
## 41:           North Carolina               17
## 42:             North Dakota               17
## 43:                   Oregon               17
## 44:            West Virginia               14
## 45:                 Arkansas               13
## 46:              Puerto Rico               13
## 47:                  Montana               11
## 48:                   Alaska                9
## 49:                     Utah                8
## 50:                   Hawaii                7
## 51:             South Dakota                7
## 52:                  Wyoming                3
## 53:           American Samoa             <NA>
## 54:                     Guam             <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands             <NA>
## 56:           Virgin Islands             <NA>
##                        state deathsPerMillion

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)

##                        state deathsNewPerMillion
##  1:              Connecticut                  27
##  2:                 New York                  26
##  3:               New Jersey                  20
##  4:            Massachusetts                  19
##  5:             Rhode Island                  11
##  6:     District of Columbia                   8
##  7:                Louisiana                   8
##  8:                 Michigan                   8
##  9:             Pennsylvania                   8
## 10:                 Illinois                   5
## 11:                 Maryland                   5
## 12:                 Colorado                   3
## 13:                 Delaware                   3
## 14:                  Georgia                   3
## 15:              Mississippi                   3
## 16:                  Indiana                   2
## 17:                     Ohio                   2
## 18:                 Virginia                   2
## 19:               Washington                   2
## 20:               California                   1
## 21:                  Florida                   1
## 22:                     Iowa                   1
## 23:                   Kansas                   1
## 24:                 Kentucky                   1
## 25:                    Maine                   1
## 26:                Minnesota                   1
## 27:                  Montana                   1
## 28:                 Nebraska                   1
## 29:                   Nevada                   1
## 30:            New Hampshire                   1
## 31:               New Mexico                   1
## 32:             North Dakota                   1
## 33:                  Vermont                   1
## 34:            West Virginia                   1
## 35:                Wisconsin                   1
## 36:                  Alabama                   0
## 37:                   Alaska                   0
## 38:                  Arizona                   0
## 39:                 Arkansas                   0
## 40:                   Hawaii                   0
## 41:                    Idaho                   0
## 42:                 Missouri                   0
## 43:           North Carolina                   0
## 44:                 Oklahoma                   0
## 45:                   Oregon                   0
## 46:           South Carolina                   0
## 47:             South Dakota                   0
## 48:                Tennessee                   0
## 49:                    Texas                   0
## 50:                     Utah                   0
## 51:                  Wyoming                   0
## 52:              Puerto Rico                  -1
## 53:           American Samoa                <NA>
## 54:                     Guam                <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands                <NA>
## 56:           Virgin Islands                <NA>
##                        state deathsNewPerMillion

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.

##          county          state casesPerMillion rawRanking percentile
##  1:    New York       New York          84,003          1         99
##  2:      Marion           Ohio          31,847          2         99
##  3:    Rockland       New York          29,028          3         99
##  4: Westchester       New York          25,122          4         99
##  5:      Nassau       New York          22,608          5         99
##  6:    Davidson      Tennessee           2,523        201         93
##  7:    Richland South Carolina           1,580        402         87
##  8:      Pierce     Washington           1,319        488         84
##  9:        York South Carolina             566       1173         62
## 10:      Orange     California             528       1238         60

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.

##        county          state deathsPerMillion rawRanking percentile
##  1:  New York       New York            6,145          1         99
##  2:  Randolph        Georgia            2,213          2         99
##  3:   Terrell        Georgia            2,110          3         99
##  4:    Nassau       New York            1,207          4         99
##  5: Dougherty        Georgia            1,114          5         99
##  6:    Pierce     Washington               38        662         78
##  7:  Richland South Carolina               34        713         77
##  8:  Davidson      Tennessee               29        784         75
##  9:      York South Carolina               11       1095         65
## 10:    Orange     California               10       1099         65

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons