Covid Report for Family
Last updated on April 21, 2020 to include data from the previous day
Background
Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020
- This page shows COVID data broken down into regions that affect our family. It pulls from publicly available raw data from the NY Times, which is reported daily. It’s on a one-day lag, so when you see this report, the most recent day included will be that reported the day prior.
- The table of contents above summarizes the major sections and can be used to jump to those sections.
- Each major section is then divided into tabs to allow you to more easily shuffle between geographies and metrics.
- If you open on your phone, I don’t believe the tabs will work, so you’ll just see the page as one long, continuous document.
- More detailed descriptions and context can be found in each section.
Growth rates
Heat maps
- The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
- The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
- The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
- The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
- You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
- You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.
Case growth rates
- This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
- There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
- Each of these two lines is a rolling three-day average of daily growth rates for that particular metric.
- For total cases, the trendlines will be a bit smoother and more consistent. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total cases can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
- For new cases, the lines are a bit bumpier, in particular for states. While the trends aren’t as smooth, we want to watch for them to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”
U.S.
Our states
Death growth rates
- This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
- There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
- Each of these two lines is a rolling three-day average of daily growth rates for that particular metric.
- For total deaths, the trendlines will be a bit smoother and more consistent. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total deaths can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
- For new deaths, the lines are a bit bumpier, in particular for states. While the trends aren’t as smooth, we want to watch for them to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”
U.S.
Our states
By population rankings
This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.
States
- This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
- For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
- We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.
Total confirmed cases
Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
## state casesPerMillion
## 1: New York 12,724.0
## 2: New Jersey 9,998.0
## 3: Massachusetts 5,751.0
## 4: Connecticut 5,557.0
## 5: Louisiana 5,275.0
## 6: Rhode Island 4,804.0
## 7: District of Columbia 4,147.0
## 8: Michigan 3,196.0
## 9: Delaware 2,818.0
## 10: Pennsylvania 2,656.0
## 11: Illinois 2,486.0
## 12: Maryland 2,263.0
## 13: South Dakota 1,904.0
## 14: Colorado 1,754.0
## 15: Georgia 1,737.0
## 16: Indiana 1,735.0
## 17: Washington 1,600.0
## 18: Mississippi 1,516.0
## 19: Vermont 1,307.0
## 20: Florida 1,259.0
## 21: Nevada 1,243.0
## 22: Ohio 1,105.0
## 23: New Hampshire 1,064.0
## 24: Virginia 1,053.0
## 25: Alabama 1,035.0
## 26: Tennessee 1,027.0
## 27: Iowa 1,006.0
## 28: Utah 1,002.0
## 29: Missouri 946.0
## 30: New Mexico 939.0
## 31: Idaho 916.0
## 32: South Carolina 862.0
## 33: California 857.0
## 34: Nebraska 851.0
## 35: North Dakota 822.0
## 36: Wisconsin 772.0
## 37: Kansas 697.0
## 38: Arizona 695.0
## 39: Texas 691.0
## 40: Kentucky 682.0
## 41: Oklahoma 677.0
## 42: Arkansas 653.0
## 43: Maine 650.0
## 44: North Carolina 644.0
## 45: Wyoming 547.0
## 46: West Virginia 506.0
## 47: Oregon 463.0
## 48: Minnesota 437.0
## 49: Alaska 436.0
## 50: Hawaii 408.0
## 51: Montana 405.0
## 52: Puerto Rico 392.0
## 53: American Samoa <NA>
## 54: Guam <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 56: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state casesPerMillion
New confirmed cases
Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
## state casesNewPerMillion
## 1: New Jersey 388
## 2: New York 306
## 3: Rhode Island 287
## 4: Connecticut 281
## 5: Massachusetts 253
## 6: District of Columbia 213
## 7: Delaware 144
## 8: Maryland 116
## 9: Ohio 108
## 10: Illinois 103
## 11: South Dakota 103
## 12: Pennsylvania 101
## 13: Louisiana 100
## 14: Iowa 89
## 15: North Dakota 82
## 16: Mississippi 80
## 17: Indiana 75
## 18: Nebraska 74
## 19: Michigan 65
## 20: Colorado 61
## 21: Virginia 58
## 22: Georgia 56
## 23: New Mexico 41
## 24: Utah 41
## 25: Kentucky 39
## 26: New Hampshire 39
## 27: California 37
## 28: Florida 35
## 29: Alabama 34
## 30: Kansas 34
## 31: Nevada 33
## 32: Washington 32
## 33: Arkansas 30
## 34: Missouri 28
## 35: North Carolina 28
## 36: Tennessee 28
## 37: Arizona 25
## 38: Wisconsin 25
## 39: West Virginia 24
## 40: Minnesota 23
## 41: South Carolina 22
## 42: Texas 22
## 43: Puerto Rico 19
## 44: Vermont 19
## 45: Oklahoma 18
## 46: Idaho 13
## 47: Oregon 13
## 48: Maine 11
## 49: Hawaii 7
## 50: Wyoming 6
## 51: Alaska 5
## 52: Montana 3
## 53: American Samoa <NA>
## 54: Guam <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 56: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state casesNewPerMillion
Total deaths
Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
## state deathsPerMillion
## 1: New York 737
## 2: New Jersey 492
## 3: Connecticut 373
## 4: Louisiana 285
## 5: Massachusetts 262
## 6: Michigan 246
## 7: District of Columbia 148
## 8: Rhode Island 146
## 9: Illinois 107
## 10: Pennsylvania 106
## 11: Washington 86
## 12: Maryland 85
## 13: Indiana 84
## 14: Colorado 77
## 15: Delaware 73
## 16: Georgia 72
## 17: Vermont 60
## 18: Mississippi 56
## 19: Nevada 52
## 20: Ohio 43
## 21: Wisconsin 39
## 22: Florida 38
## 23: Oklahoma 36
## 24: Virginia 35
## 25: Kansas 34
## 26: Kentucky 34
## 27: Alabama 33
## 28: Missouri 32
## 29: California 30
## 30: New Hampshire 30
## 31: New Mexico 27
## 32: Arizona 26
## 33: Idaho 26
## 34: Maine 26
## 35: Iowa 25
## 36: Minnesota 25
## 37: South Carolina 24
## 38: Tennessee 23
## 39: Texas 18
## 40: Nebraska 17
## 41: North Carolina 17
## 42: North Dakota 17
## 43: Oregon 17
## 44: West Virginia 14
## 45: Arkansas 13
## 46: Puerto Rico 13
## 47: Montana 11
## 48: Alaska 9
## 49: Utah 8
## 50: Hawaii 7
## 51: South Dakota 7
## 52: Wyoming 3
## 53: American Samoa <NA>
## 54: Guam <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 56: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state deathsPerMillion
New deaths
Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
## state deathsNewPerMillion
## 1: Connecticut 27
## 2: New York 26
## 3: New Jersey 20
## 4: Massachusetts 19
## 5: Rhode Island 11
## 6: District of Columbia 8
## 7: Louisiana 8
## 8: Michigan 8
## 9: Pennsylvania 8
## 10: Illinois 5
## 11: Maryland 5
## 12: Colorado 3
## 13: Delaware 3
## 14: Georgia 3
## 15: Mississippi 3
## 16: Indiana 2
## 17: Ohio 2
## 18: Virginia 2
## 19: Washington 2
## 20: California 1
## 21: Florida 1
## 22: Iowa 1
## 23: Kansas 1
## 24: Kentucky 1
## 25: Maine 1
## 26: Minnesota 1
## 27: Montana 1
## 28: Nebraska 1
## 29: Nevada 1
## 30: New Hampshire 1
## 31: New Mexico 1
## 32: North Dakota 1
## 33: Vermont 1
## 34: West Virginia 1
## 35: Wisconsin 1
## 36: Alabama 0
## 37: Alaska 0
## 38: Arizona 0
## 39: Arkansas 0
## 40: Hawaii 0
## 41: Idaho 0
## 42: Missouri 0
## 43: North Carolina 0
## 44: Oklahoma 0
## 45: Oregon 0
## 46: South Carolina 0
## 47: South Dakota 0
## 48: Tennessee 0
## 49: Texas 0
## 50: Utah 0
## 51: Wyoming 0
## 52: Puerto Rico -1
## 53: American Samoa <NA>
## 54: Guam <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 56: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state deathsNewPerMillion
Counties
- This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
- Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
- In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.
Confirmed cases
Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
## county state casesPerMillion rawRanking percentile
## 1: New York New York 84,003 1 99
## 2: Marion Ohio 31,847 2 99
## 3: Rockland New York 29,028 3 99
## 4: Westchester New York 25,122 4 99
## 5: Nassau New York 22,608 5 99
## 6: Davidson Tennessee 2,523 201 93
## 7: Richland South Carolina 1,580 402 87
## 8: Pierce Washington 1,319 488 84
## 9: York South Carolina 566 1173 62
## 10: Orange California 528 1238 60Our county percentiles over time 
Deaths
Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
## county state deathsPerMillion rawRanking percentile
## 1: New York New York 6,145 1 99
## 2: Randolph Georgia 2,213 2 99
## 3: Terrell Georgia 2,110 3 99
## 4: Nassau New York 1,207 4 99
## 5: Dougherty Georgia 1,114 5 99
## 6: Pierce Washington 38 662 78
## 7: Richland South Carolina 34 713 77
## 8: Davidson Tennessee 29 784 75
## 9: York South Carolina 11 1095 65
## 10: Orange California 10 1099 65Our county percentiles over time 
Raw counts
- This section shows the raw counts over time for the U.S., our states, and our counties for four categories:
- Total confirmed cases: This is the cumulative total of cases reported.
- New confirmed cases: This is the number of new cases reported on each respective date.
- For the U.S. and states, a trendline shows the rolling 7-day average of new cases, to help better visualize the peak.
- Total deaths: This is the cumulative total of deaths reported.
- New deaths: This is the number of new deaths reported on each respective date.
- For the U.S. and states, a trendline shows the rolling 7-day average of new deaths, to help better visualize the peak.
Total confirmed cases
U.S.
Our states
Our counties
New confirmed cases
U.S.
Our states
Our counties
Total deaths
U.S.
Our states
Our counties
New deaths
U.S.
Our states
Our counties
Stay-at-home comparisons
- This section is a work in progress. It’s exploring what effect stay-at-home orders have on spread. It’s inherentely messy because some states have localized orders but not orders for their full state and because states implemented the orders at different times.
- The first plot shows a rolling 3-day average of new cases per million residents, averaged across 2 groups of states – those with a state-wide stay-at-home order in effect and those without. The size of the dots reflect the number of states in each group for each given day (so the dots are getting bigger over time for the group with orders, as more states implement those orders).
- So far, this view doesn’t show if these orders are “working” or not. Instead, the biggest takeaway from the current plot is that the states that implemented orders are reacting to having worse spread, which is why the case rate is so much higher at the start for them. As a state decides it has a problem and implements an order, it joins the grouping of states with orders and drives the rate up for that group.
- Over time (if the policies work), what we’d expect is that the line for the group with orders flattens a bit, but we’ll see. It also may become moot if all states issue orders.
- The second plot is new and is attempting to track the progress normalized for how long each state has had the order. It shows the average of the ratio for each state of the new cases for any given day to the number of new cases on the day the order was enacted. If the orders are working, over time this line should come back down…but it isn’t there yet.
- The first plot shows a rolling 3-day average of new cases per million residents, averaged across 2 groups of states – those with a state-wide stay-at-home order in effect and those without. The size of the dots reflect the number of states in each group for each given day (so the dots are getting bigger over time for the group with orders, as more states implement those orders).
